Resumen en inglés

ABSTRACT:The integration of non-conventional renewable energy sources (NRES) into electricity systems introduces variability and intermittency, challenging power systems traditionally designed for stable and predictable generation. These challenges require policymakers to develop strategies aimed at maintaining reliability, affordability, and sustainability while increasing the share of NRES. One promising solution is leveraging the complementary nature of NRES to mitigate variability. However, the translation of this complementarity into effective policy and incentive structures remains underexplored in existing research. This study addresses this gap by employing System Dynamics modeling to analyze the effects of incentivizing complementarity between NRES and electricity system availability. In contrast to traditional methods, which assess complementarity between two or more generation sources, this study evaluates how individual sources complement the system’s availability. The resulting complementarity values are used to guide the design of incentives for new NRES investments. Two metrics, Pearson correlation and the Total Variation Metric (TVM), were analyzed to assess their effectiveness in measuring complementarity. The model is applied to a case study of the Colombian electricity market, a system characterized by its dependence on hydropower and substantial potential for NRES integration. The findings suggest that incentivizing complementarity can enhance grid stability, reduce dependence on thermal generation, and lower overall system costs. Future research should refine these metrics to better account for minimum availability and focus on short-term variations to further optimize system flexibility and resilience.