Valoración de Cementos Argos en un contexto internacional
Ochoa-Rodríguez, M. (Mónica) | 2014-05-13
The paper contains the valuation of Cementos Argos (a Colombian cement company), in an international
environment, using the discounted free cash flow method based on public available
information, and considering a time horizon of 10 years. This valuation exercise is made of three
stages: sector and company analysis, subsequently, a survey of key macroeconomic variables and
their projections was conducted and an analysis of the macroeconomic risk to which the company
is exposed was carried out; valuation of Cementos Argos performed with a model created by Bancolombia
investment bank to valuate firms in Colombia and with Crystal Ball used to reach a range
of more real values through statistic simulations; comparison of multiples of Cementos Argos in
an international context, comparing it to similar cement companies (Cemex, Holcim and Lafarge)
around the world.
For a projection period of 10 years and a WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) of 12,6% for
the first year, the value per share that the model shows is COP 6386, which is fairly close to the
trading price in recent months.