Publicación: Valoración de Cementos Argos en un contexto internacional
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The paper contains the valuation of Cementos Argos (a Colombian cement company), in an international environment, using the discounted free cash flow method based on public available information, and considering a time horizon of 10 years. This valuation exercise is made of three stages: sector and company analysis, subsequently, a survey of key macroeconomic variables and their projections was conducted and an analysis of the macroeconomic risk to which the company is exposed was carried out; valuation of Cementos Argos performed with a model created by Bancolombia investment bank to valuate firms in Colombia and with Crystal Ball used to reach a range of more real values through statistic simulations; comparison of multiples of Cementos Argos in an international context, comparing it to similar cement companies (Cemex, Holcim and Lafarge) around the world. For a projection period of 10 years and a WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) of 12,6% for the first year, the value per share that the model shows is COP 6386, which is fairly close to the trading price in recent months.